Think, yes, the $35 million opening of Jungle Cruise, the $24 million debut of The Conjuring: The Devil Mad Me Do It or the $16.5 million launch of M.
I’ve written a lot about “successful disappointments” this summer, which is when movies opening amid the pandemic are still able to open with about as much as they would have had they disappointed in non-Covid times. Instead argue $75 million in Disney+ revenue (equal to $125 million in box office), $75 million in China and $25 million in other territories means around $225 million in theoretical revenue and, heck, it may open and break out in China in the near future), which would push its global cume to $585 million, or ironically tied with Iron Man from back in 2008. Now let’s pretend I’m way off on some of this.
#Marvel black widow box office movie
If this “fun with math” is in anywhere accurate, then Black Widow would have done about as expected on the lower end of post- Avengers MCU movies, which befits a Phase Four movie that plays like a Phase One origin story. So that’s $170 million in theoretical additional box office (although I’d never argue that every dollar toward Disney+ is a dollar otherwise spent at the box office) for a grand theoretical total of $670 million. Throw in (very rough guestimate) $100 million in total Disney+ purchases ($60 million on opening weekend, $40 million for the next two months), for which Disney gets 85%.
That’s already on par with Captain America: The First Avenger ($376 million in 2011) and with the theoretical $140 million in China and other “won’t necessarily open” territories, it might very well have earned $600 million global. So, right now, Black Widow has earned $360 million worldwide. But even in a muted Chinese market (for Hollywood flicks, anyway), Black Widow could have counted on another $100 million in grosses. It may yet open in China after the blackout period ends, but A) the last year has proven once and for all that China doesn’t need Hollywood blockbusters and B) the Disney+ release will likely impact the grosses due to rampant piracy. Think Ant-Man 2 ($125 million), Captain Marvel ($154 million) and Spider-Man: Far from Home ($199 million) notching new milestones for non-ensemble MCU flicks while Avengers: Endgame earned $620 million in China alone which was enough to (temporarily) push it past Avatar on the global box office mountain. In a pre-Covid world, there was hope that Black Widow would continue the run Marvel has had in China since mid-2018. The film has earned $185 million overseas, which looks worse because it has yet to secure a China release date. Looking at the overseas earnings thus far, they are merely pretty bad. The performance of Black Widow, especially in this moment in time, means almost nothing for the overall fate of the MCU. Even in non-Covid times, it was always possible that Black Widow, Eternal and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings may have had to settle for Ant-Man and the Wasp ($620 million) to Doctor Strange ($677 million)-level grosses.
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